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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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