Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
