A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
